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| JEB BUSH Says he wonʼt run, but can you believe a Bush? |
By Keith Hansen
Although the 2012 presidential election is 21
months away, posturing and positioning has
already begun to determine the degree of
enthusiasm any possible candidate might
generate. This early field testing includes murmurs of a
three- or four-party race, and open talk about what
many have thought about but none has dared to mention:
former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush as a presidential
candidate. As if the two Georges weren’t enough, coming
from a family with a father-and-son team of Skull
and Bones graduates—a pro-war secret society atYale.
Which party Jeb chooses remains the biggest variable:
More than likely it will be the mainstream GOP.
But it could also be a third party currently drawing support
from independently minded people. Don’t forget
that fellow Floridian Charlie Crist, another former
Republican governor of Florida, tried to run as an independent
for the Senate seat that was being vacated by
Mel Martinez. Crist may have lost to Marc Rubio, but
the precedent was set nonetheless.
Some say it’s unlikely that the tea party movement
would adopt another Bush family member. But many
established tea party groups are nothing more than
Republican front groups acting as steam valves for disillusioned
conservatives. Even now, nearly 90 percent
of tea party activists are less than thrilled by what passes
for traditional Republicans.
If nothing else, it would be quite a spectacle having
perhaps four parties competing for the presidency, a situation
that harks back to three separate elections that
occurred a century ago.
In 1860, four candidates ran, with Abraham Lincoln
emerging as the winner. In 1872, the overcrowded field
led to an even more bizarre race. Incumbent (and eventual
winner) Ulysses S. Grant was challenged by seven
candidates—the most formidable of whom, liberal
Republican newspaperman Horace Greeley—died
before the casting of his 66 electoral votes.
The 1912 election was the last in which four substantial
candidates competed. DemocratWoodrowWilson
defeated incumbent Republican William Howard
Taft, the only time an incumbent was unseated in a multiple-
candidate race. Adding to the ignominy of his
defeat, Taft finished third behind Wilson and progressive
candidate Teddy Roosevelt, who received 88 electoral
votes to Taft’s paltry 8. Socialist candidate Eugene
Debs finished last—the fourth of five losses he sustained
in races he entered between 1900 and 1920.
Enter Jeb Bush. Is he a candidate any party could
accept? Recently, he has been written about quite
extensively as a strong—perhaps the strongest—challenger
to Obama.
Back in 2007, plenty of Floridians wanted Jeb—
after he completed his second gubernatorial term—to
go straight fromTallahassee to theWhite House, taking
hold of the scepter from older brother George W. and
continuing the Bush dynastic line.
At that time, Jeb, in an appreciative tone, turned
away such presidential notions. Today, he still demurely
replies in the negative when asked if he would run in
2012. Whether or not he is playing hard to get, his
polite refusals only make him that much more endearing
to those who are looking for another Bush in the
White House.
Even if he is sincere about not wishing to run in
2012, he might finally see the light of opportunity in
next year’s election.
To many Republicans, Jeb’s reign as Florida governor
was respectable. He is viewed—because of his
gubernatorial work—as being strong on education. He
is also articulate—far more so than his father and older
brother—in a Clintonesque sort of way. His wife,
Columba, isMexican born, and Jeb is fluent in Spanish,
thus beneficial in courting the growing Latino and
Cuban vote. This is especially important to many internationalist
Republicans, who are willing to reach out to
anyone in order to grab more power.
He has the backing of the powerful and well-funded,
pro-Israel neo-conservatives. Jeb was in the pro-war
Project for a New American Century (PNAC) gang
even before his governor days. He was one of the topline
signatories to PNAC’s Statement of Principles,
along with notorious neo-conservatives Elliot Abrams,
Gary Bauer andWilliam J. Bennett.
Finally, let’s not forget he’s got that bloodline going
for him.
So, though Jeb doth protest much, will he run in
2012 or provide leadership to traditional Republicans,
who refuse to embrace dissatisfied tea party splinter
groups?
months away, posturing and positioning has
already begun to determine the degree of
enthusiasm any possible candidate might
generate. This early field testing includes murmurs of a
three- or four-party race, and open talk about what
many have thought about but none has dared to mention:
former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush as a presidential
candidate. As if the two Georges weren’t enough, coming
from a family with a father-and-son team of Skull
and Bones graduates—a pro-war secret society atYale.
Which party Jeb chooses remains the biggest variable:
More than likely it will be the mainstream GOP.
But it could also be a third party currently drawing support
from independently minded people. Don’t forget
that fellow Floridian Charlie Crist, another former
Republican governor of Florida, tried to run as an independent
for the Senate seat that was being vacated by
Mel Martinez. Crist may have lost to Marc Rubio, but
the precedent was set nonetheless.
Some say it’s unlikely that the tea party movement
would adopt another Bush family member. But many
established tea party groups are nothing more than
Republican front groups acting as steam valves for disillusioned
conservatives. Even now, nearly 90 percent
of tea party activists are less than thrilled by what passes
for traditional Republicans.
If nothing else, it would be quite a spectacle having
perhaps four parties competing for the presidency, a situation
that harks back to three separate elections that
occurred a century ago.
In 1860, four candidates ran, with Abraham Lincoln
emerging as the winner. In 1872, the overcrowded field
led to an even more bizarre race. Incumbent (and eventual
winner) Ulysses S. Grant was challenged by seven
candidates—the most formidable of whom, liberal
Republican newspaperman Horace Greeley—died
before the casting of his 66 electoral votes.
The 1912 election was the last in which four substantial
candidates competed. DemocratWoodrowWilson
defeated incumbent Republican William Howard
Taft, the only time an incumbent was unseated in a multiple-
candidate race. Adding to the ignominy of his
defeat, Taft finished third behind Wilson and progressive
candidate Teddy Roosevelt, who received 88 electoral
votes to Taft’s paltry 8. Socialist candidate Eugene
Debs finished last—the fourth of five losses he sustained
in races he entered between 1900 and 1920.
Enter Jeb Bush. Is he a candidate any party could
accept? Recently, he has been written about quite
extensively as a strong—perhaps the strongest—challenger
to Obama.
Back in 2007, plenty of Floridians wanted Jeb—
after he completed his second gubernatorial term—to
go straight fromTallahassee to theWhite House, taking
hold of the scepter from older brother George W. and
continuing the Bush dynastic line.
At that time, Jeb, in an appreciative tone, turned
away such presidential notions. Today, he still demurely
replies in the negative when asked if he would run in
2012. Whether or not he is playing hard to get, his
polite refusals only make him that much more endearing
to those who are looking for another Bush in the
White House.
Even if he is sincere about not wishing to run in
2012, he might finally see the light of opportunity in
next year’s election.
To many Republicans, Jeb’s reign as Florida governor
was respectable. He is viewed—because of his
gubernatorial work—as being strong on education. He
is also articulate—far more so than his father and older
brother—in a Clintonesque sort of way. His wife,
Columba, isMexican born, and Jeb is fluent in Spanish,
thus beneficial in courting the growing Latino and
Cuban vote. This is especially important to many internationalist
Republicans, who are willing to reach out to
anyone in order to grab more power.
He has the backing of the powerful and well-funded,
pro-Israel neo-conservatives. Jeb was in the pro-war
Project for a New American Century (PNAC) gang
even before his governor days. He was one of the topline
signatories to PNAC’s Statement of Principles,
along with notorious neo-conservatives Elliot Abrams,
Gary Bauer andWilliam J. Bennett.
Finally, let’s not forget he’s got that bloodline going
for him.
So, though Jeb doth protest much, will he run in
2012 or provide leadership to traditional Republicans,
who refuse to embrace dissatisfied tea party splinter
groups?
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